Task 3.3 Pathways and Impacts
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Question 1 of 2
1. Question
The IPCC has set out five broad pathways which the world might follow in the immediate future. Each pathway is predicted to lead to a different level of warming (between 1.5 and 4 degrees).
Can you order these pathways in order from least to most warming?
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The world follows a pathway of increasing inequality in economic opportunity and political power – both across and within countries. Conflict and unrest become increasingly common. The energy sector invests in both carbon-intensive fuels (like coal and ‘unconventional oil’), but also low-carbon energy sources. Environmental policies focus on local issues in middle and high income areas.
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There are more regional conflicts, and countries focus on achieving their own energy and food security, rather than thinking about the global picture. Economic development is slow, consumption is material-intensive, and inequalities persist or worsen.
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Economic development continues to be based on use of abundant fossil fuels. People around the world adopt more energy intensive lifestyles. There is still a strong faith in Global markets that result in rapid economic growth. (and consumption) There is still hope that ecological systems (global warming) can be managed and a willingness to use geo-engineering despite unknown and potentially catastrophic consequences.
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The world shifts towards a more sustainable path. Management of the global resources improves, and the emphasis shifts from economic growth toward human well-being. Inequality is reduced, achieving global development goals (both between and within countries).
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Social, economic, and technological trends do not shift much from historical patterns. Some countries see development and income growth while others remain low income – income inequality persists. There is some progress towards achieving sustainable development goals. Resource and energy use declines somewhat, but environmental systems are still degraded.
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Question 2 of 2
2. Question
Below you will see a list of predicted impacts if warming reaches 4°c. Which of these isn’t an accurate prediction?
These predictions have been taken from articles produced by the following organisations:
National Academy of Sciences of the USA https://www.pnas.org/content/116/6/1934
The World Bank https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2012/11/18/new-report-examines-risks-of-degree-hotter-world-by-end-of-century
The International Panel On Climate Change https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
Massachusetts Institute of Technology http://cgcs.mit.edu/varied-increases-extreme-rainfall-global-warming
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